Thursday, July 3, 2008

FUTURE STUDIES

What are Future Studies? One way to define them is to relate an incident with Wayne Gretzke, the famed Canadian hockey player. A reporter asked him why he was a great hockey player. He answered, "I always skate to where the puck is going." This is the essence of Future Studies. Where is the "puck going?" We need to "skate" to where the "puck" is going in our areas of concern. Or to borrow from Gerald Celente, expert trend caster, Future Studies are like the skipper of a sailboat. I can relate. I have been an inland sailor since my undergraduate days at the University of Wisconsin - Madison, which sits on the shores of Lake Mendota, six by three miles in dimensions. The skipper of a sailboat is constantly watching for changes in the wind. He or she wants to position the sailboat to take advantage of puffs of wind - or "irons" lack of wind. Future Studies are similar to science fiction, which relies on creating future scenarios through extrapolation of facts. Science fiction, unlike fantasy, must start with probable facts. This is what gives it "punch." It has enough fact to make it not only possible but probable. Future Studies deal with "where the puck is going." It anticipates the "wind on the water." Future Studies above all are not fatalistic. The future is what we make it through the choices we make today. Future Studies reject fantasy and fatalism. They takes facts and extrapolate them into possible options. We act on these options, and through our choices we in fact create the future. I love Future Studies or Futurism, because since I was a boy in the sixth grade, I have loved science fiction. I love imagination - or "imagineering" t0 borrow a Walt Disney phrase. As a history student in three universities (Wisconsin - Madison, Toronto, Dublin) I drew on my imagination to create models of the past based on historical facts. Future Studies are the same as historical studies, for they start with facts and imagine their implications. It is like the pop movie Back to the Future. In fact Futurists draw on historical precedents as guides to possible, probable choices about future scenarios. I still love history. I love Future Studies. I love "imagineering." I have a passion to share it with others. This is becoming one of my missions in life. The other is walking the talk of my religious faith, which also looks to the future, too.

1 comment:

Paul Rux, Ph.D. said...

Karl Marx, in his Das Kapital, argued that the "Means of production" - or technology - determines sociology. Clearly technology can and does subvert social organization and personal behavior. The Internet and this blog are good examples. However, it is simplistic to say that technology alone determines the present - and future. Humans are not yet robots. Therefore, it is premature to "automate" the future. Unfortunately, too many "Futurists" are technological determinists and/or fatalists. I recognize the importance of technology. I am an award-winning technology planner. I teach IT at the university level. However, I think Marx is too simplistic in his "means of production" alone determine social and personal behaviors. I must thank my University of Toronto M.A. history professor, advisor, and friend for reminding me not to lapse into the current fad to see the future as simply variation on technology. Again, I cherish the wisdom of Professor Emeritus John S. Moir. You are never to old to learn. He has taught me well again.