Robert, bravo, this is thoughtful, thorough, first-rate, and a model for other students for how to complete assignment 8.2. Above all, you have evaluated trend forecasting techniques.
In particular, you "hit the nail on the head" when you point out the flaw in linear planning, exptrapolating the variables, measurements of the past into the future. In fact, the variables, measurements, models of the past can become outdated quickly and replaced by new, unexpected variables suddenly today. We live in a time of complexity and chaos; history can offer some insight through comparisons; it cannot be an ironclad guide to a turbulent future. This is why financial planners who peddle investment "products" are dangerous, for often they push products on the basis of cyclical, linear models of behavior. In fact, contexts change, and behavior changes with context.
The second insight is this. Yes, one-year strategic plans are now in vogue, not the old five-year planning cycles. However, when your humble servant here studied strategic planning for his PH.D. the "rule" then already was "sketch planning," tentative planning, which we review, update every six months because of the chaos and complexity at ever-faster speeds today. You have done a super job in identifying technique research and how to apply it.
In particular, you "hit the nail on the head" when you point out the flaw in linear planning, exptrapolating the variables, measurements of the past into the future. In fact, the variables, measurements, models of the past can become outdated quickly and replaced by new, unexpected variables suddenly today. We live in a time of complexity and chaos; history can offer some insight through comparisons; it cannot be an ironclad guide to a turbulent future. This is why financial planners who peddle investment "products" are dangerous, for often they push products on the basis of cyclical, linear models of behavior. In fact, contexts change, and behavior changes with context.
The second insight is this. Yes, one-year strategic plans are now in vogue, not the old five-year planning cycles. However, when your humble servant here studied strategic planning for his PH.D. the "rule" then already was "sketch planning," tentative planning, which we review, update every six months because of the chaos and complexity at ever-faster speeds today. You have done a super job in identifying technique research and how to apply it.
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