Carol, yes, it is calculated thinking. It involves three concepts: probable, possible, and plausible. Probable means it is likely to happend based on current trends. Possible means it could happen, a "wild card," but it is not likely to happen. Yet we need to be alert to these statistical "wild car" possibilities. Plausible means it is likely the option, trend, direction to receive human attention and action. We call this "The Three P's of Trend Forecasting."
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