Sunday, March 18, 2012

Friedrich Hayek's Fatal Conceit: Signpost to the Future

Tim, today, yes, this very day, I purchased a paperback entitled The Fatal Conceit in Cedar Key, Florida! I agree with Hayek. His insight aligns with Chaos Theory and Complexity Theory.

Chaos Theory says the universe is self-organizing, and has its roots in Quantum Physics, which says deep reality, structure consists of self-organizing flows of energy. In economics, we would call this free market logic. Chaos Theory argues, with Hayek, that we create more damage through artificial interventions, e.g. state planning, than if we simply let things sort themselves out. In fact, Chaos is not chaotic. It is a "deep" logic at work.

Complexity Theory argues - with Hayek - that we often operate with incomplete information, because reality today in economics, politics, social dynamics, etc. has so many variables at work that we cannot begin to know all of them, let alone manipulate them. A great discussion of this is Nicholas Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan. Also, I am reading right now The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us and What We Can Do About It by Joshua Cooper Ramo (2009), who is CEO of Kissinger Associates! Ramo makes the argument for Complexity Theory and Chaos Theory in international affairs - forcefully and with specific reference to outdated mechanistic, Newtonian thinking about international reality.

In sum, Hayek got it right. He aligns with the best thinking today on Complexity and Chaos. This theoretical foundation needs to drive the Libertarian / Conservative argument into the future, for it aligns with the logic of the Internet, which is self-organizing, decentralized, complex, and yes chaotic too. I hope this helps. Let me know if I have missed something. Take care. Paul

Paul Rux, Ph.D.
IMAGINEER
www.paulrux.net

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